← All seasonality|Forex metals1999–2025

Spot gold (XAUUSD) Seasonality

Over 1999 to 2025 (27 years of data), XAUUSD has tended to move long between 08.07 and 11.07, closing higher in 77.8% of those years for an average +0.93% move and an annualized Sharpe of 7.81.

Average seasonal curve

XAUUSD average seasonal curve, 1999 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	100.2043
3	99.7132
4	100.2184
5	100.2688
6	100.6045
7	100.6239
8	100.6865
9	100.8927
10	101.1443
11	101.5815
12	102.2687
13	102.2614
14	102.3527
15	102.5129
16	102.3375
17	101.9912
18	102.4015
19	102.9166
20	103.4435
21	103.6412
22	104.4479
23	104.6829
24	104.829
25	105.2953
26	104.7592
27	104.7731
28	106.2467
29	106.0505
30	104.073
31	104.2778
32	104.0761
33	103.6933
34	104.0085
35	104.5044
36	103.2529
37	104.4589
38	104.6752
39	105.0187
40	104.8847
41	105.2547
42	105.5645
43	104.9299
44	105.2582
45	105.0636
46	104.6664
47	104.7852
48	104.7967
49	105.5293
50	105.5759
51	106.3159
52	106.2672

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
08.07 → 11.07	Long	77.8%	+0.93%	7.81	27
07.07 → 10.07	Long	77.8%	+0.71%	5.65	27
08.07 → 12.07	Long	74.1%	+1.01%	5.67	27
07.07 → 04.09	Long	70.4%	+3.25%	1.15	27
07.07 → 12.08	Long	70.4%	+1.75%	1.11	27
07.07 → 11.08	Long	70.4%	+1.69%	1.13	27
08.07 → 28.07	Long	70.4%

Explore further

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