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Spot silver (XAGUSD) Seasonality

Over 1999 to 2025 (27 years of data), XAGUSD has tended to move long between 08.07 and 12.07, closing higher in 77.8% of those years for an average +2.00% move and an annualized Sharpe of 7.60.

Average seasonal curve

XAGUSD average seasonal curve, 1999 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	100.4079
3	100.4813
4	100.6993
5	100.8042
6	100.7077
7	101.2008
8	100.0787
9	99.7332
10	99.8588
11	99.8218
12	100.6053
13	100.5946
14	100.4434
15	100.6305
16	100.3871
17	99.8941
18	100.0254
19	100.5553
20	101.2048
21	100.963
22	100.7094
23	100.5551
24	101.0419
25	101.3837
26	101.3819
27	100.7912
28	100.8461
29	101.3277
30	101.7151
31	102.6713
32	102.8473
33	101.2011
34	100.9127
35	101.0326
36	101.2613
37	101.3845
38	101.1933
39	101.867
40	101.5741
41	101.778
42	102.0216
43	102.3466
44	102.1704
45	102.5567
46	102.3798
47	102.2783
48	102.7379
49	102.9596
50	103.1055
51	103.325
52	103.0543

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
08.07 → 12.07	Long	77.8%	+2.00%	7.60	27
08.07 → 13.07	Long	77.8%	+1.82%	5.75	27
08.07 → 11.07	Long	77.8%	+1.66%	8.66	27
07.07 → 11.07	Long	77.8%	+1.59%	6.33	27
08.07 → 01.08	Long	74.1%	+3.27%	1.69	27
09.07 → 01.08	Long	74.1%	+2.62%	1.45	27
07.07 → 13.07	Long	74.1%

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