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US Dollar vs Romanian Leu (USDRON) Seasonality

Over 2016 to 2025 (10 years of data), USDRON has tended to move long between 28.07 and 26.09, closing higher in 77.8% of those years for an average +1.64% move and an annualized Sharpe of 1.55.

Average seasonal curve

USDRON average seasonal curve, 2016 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	100.2968
3	100.4941
4	100.2512
5	100.1585
6	99.9679
7	99.978
8	100.2141
9	100.022
10	100.1557
11	100.1099
12	99.7256
13	99.7357
14	99.7106
15	99.809
16	100.0057
17	100.0693
18	100.2508
19	100.0986
20	99.9212
21	99.8368
22	99.9691
23	99.8827
24	99.8167
25	99.7516
26	99.7638
27	99.9882
28	100.0383
29	100.0064
30	99.9629
31	99.868
32	99.6851
33	99.8038
34	99.8001
35	99.8512
36	99.8467
37	100.048
38	100.3009
39	100.3871
40	100.3137
41	100.4826
42	100.5248
43	100.5013
44	100.5037
45	100.3936
46	100.2973
47	100.3609
48	100.5159
49	100.597
50	100.557
51	100.614
52	100.7589

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
28.07 → 26.09	Long	77.8%	+1.64%	1.55	9
26.07 → 24.09	Long	77.8%	+1.43%	1.29	9
28.07 → 19.09	Long	77.8%	+0.54%	0.80	9
28.07 → 10.09	Long	77.8%	+0.33%	0.79	9
28.07 → 09.09	Long	77.8%	+0.32%	0.77	9
28.07 → 04.08	Short	77.8%	+0.01%	0.05	9
28.07 → 25.09	Long	66.7%

Explore further

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