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US Dollar vs Hong Kong Dollar (USDHKD) Seasonality

Over 1986 to 2025 (40 years of data), USDHKD has tended to move short between 23.07 and 20.09, closing higher in 73.7% of those years for an average +0.08% move and an annualized Sharpe of 0.89.

Average seasonal curve

USDHKD average seasonal curve, 1986 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	100.0117
3	100.0014
4	100.0074
5	100.0125
6	100.0145
7	100.0113
8	100.0213
9	100.0316
10	100.0363
11	100.044
12	100.0315
13	100.0327
14	100.0438
15	100.0461
16	100.0486
17	100.0511
18	100.057
19	100.0614
20	100.0582
21	100.0635
22	100.0543
23	100.0607
24	100.0636
25	100.0617
26	100.0629
27	100.0649
28	100.0634
29	100.0608
30	100.0638
31	100.0657
32	100.0617
33	100.0695
34	100.0656
35	100.066
36	100.0643
37	100.0643
38	100.0662
39	100.0794
40	100.0782
41	100.0774
42	100.0777
43	100.0816
44	100.0846
45	100.0784
46	100.0704
47	100.0757
48	100.0702
49	100.0711
50	100.0696
51	100.0646
52	100.0703

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
23.07 → 20.09	Short	73.7%	+0.08%	0.89	38
27.07 → 07.08	Long	72.5%	+0.02%	0.93	40
28.07 → 07.08	Long	72.5%	+0.01%	0.88	40
22.07 → 20.09	Short	71.8%	+0.08%	0.85	39
23.07 → 21.09	Short	69.2%	+0.09%	0.95	39
24.07 → 20.09	Short	69.2%	+0.08%	0.84	39
22.07 → 15.09	Short	68.4%

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