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USA 100 Technical Index (USATECHIDXUSD) Seasonality

Over 1990 to 2025 (36 years of data), USATECHIDXUSD has tended to move long between 07.07 and 02.09, closing higher in 77.1% of those years for an average +2.65% move and an annualized Sharpe of 0.98.

Average seasonal curve

USATECHIDXUSD average seasonal curve, 1990 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	99.5612
3	99.6017
4	99.3256
5	98.6365
6	99.589
7	98.9774
8	99.2349
9	99.46
10	99.6945
11	100.2405
12	100.4281
13	100.0996
14	99.8949
15	100.4258
16	100.2505
17	100.4675
18	99.938
19	99.7802
20	99.8973
21	99.9111
22	100.0686
23	100.9467
24	100.6708
25	100.1968
26	100.5441
27	100.4841
28	101.1203
29	101.2195
30	100.4703
31	100.9917
32	102.3479
33	102.1004
34	102.0542
35	101.6052
36	101.1521
37	101.8291
38	102.0112
39	102.0897
40	102.5427
41	101.9556
42	101.3584
43	100.9448
44	101.2164
45	101.7386
46	102.4595
47	101.6802
48	100.9908
49	101.0668
50	100.8957
51	100.5974
52	99.6374

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
07.07 → 02.09	Long	77.1%	+2.65%	0.98	35
07.07 → 04.09	Long	77.1%	+2.31%	0.80	35
10.07 → 02.09	Long	77.1%	+2.28%	0.99	35
08.07 → 04.09	Long	77.1%	+2.16%	0.78	35
10.07 → 03.09	Long	77.1%	+2.11%	0.89	35
09.07 → 31.08	Long	77.1%	+1.80%	0.77	35
12.07 → 03.09	Long	77.1%

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