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USA 100 Technical Index (USATECHIDXUSD) Seasonality

Over 1990 to 2025 (36 years of data), USATECHIDXUSD has tended to move long between 16.08 and 07.09, closing higher in 77.1% of those years for an average +0.72% move and an annualized Sharpe of 0.56.

Average seasonal curve

USATECHIDXUSD average seasonal curve, 1990 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	100.0054
3	100.157
4	100.0475
5	99.9659
6	100.1544
7	99.9815
8	100.5203
9	100.5656
10	100.7608
11	100.9901
12	101.1911
13	100.812
14	100.9739
15	100.8966
16	100.9732
17	101.243
18	101.3441
19	101.4338
20	101.657
21	101.5815
22	101.9477
23	102.3606
24	102.0552
25	102.1177
26	102.318
27	101.6497
28	101.738
29	101.8557
30	101.8729
31	101.8886
32	102.8708
33	102.5988
34	102.7081
35	102.8906
36	102.7123
37	102.8972
38	103.0188
39	102.7918
40	103.0497
41	103.1178
42	103.1037
43	103.5279
44	103.9137
45	104.3183
46	104.7918
47	104.6427
48	104.5678
49	104.4536
50	104.5288
51	104.2359
52	103.7175

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
16.08 → 07.09	Long	77.1%	+0.72%	0.56	35
16.08 → 28.09	Long	77.1%	+0.71%	0.25	35
18.08 → 29.09	Long	77.1%	+0.06%	0.02	35
16.08 → 12.09	Long	74.3%	+1.48%	1.14	35
16.08 → 13.09	Long	74.3%	+1.44%	0.97	35
16.08 → 16.09	Long	74.3%	+1.34%	0.74	35
20.08 → 20.09	Long	74.3%

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