America

USA 500 Index (USA500IDXUSD) Seasonality

Over 1980 to 2025 (46 years of data), USA500IDXUSD has tended to move long between 05.10 and 30.11, closing higher in 82.6% of those years for an average +2.84% move and an annualized Sharpe of 0.89.

Years: 1980-2025
Category: America
Windows: 8

Best window

05.10 - 30.11

Direction

Long

Win rate

82.6%

Avg return

+2.84%

Sample

46 yrs

Average seasonal curve

Average path across the year

1980-2025

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
05.10 → 30.11	Long	82.6%	+2.84%	0.89	46
06.10 → 30.11	Long	82.6%	+2.68%	0.85	46
05.10 → 29.11	Long	82.6%

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USA500IDXUSD average seasonal curve, 1980 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	99.8821
3	99.8619
4	99.9411
5	99.5492
6	100.2098
7	99.7978
8	100.0752
9	100.0104
10	100.1126
11	100.4549
12	100.622
13	100.5037
14	100.3771
15	100.8214
16	100.6833
17	100.6845
18	100.1006
19	99.8645
20	99.9132
21	99.9377
22	100.0783
23	100.6542
24	100.4527
25	100.3505
26	100.6332
27	100.5257
28	100.9208
29	101.0114
30	100.8206
31	101.0202
32	101.8988
33	101.8623
34	101.804
35	101.5418
36	101.1801
37	101.8091
38	101.9543
39	102.0391
40	102.2491
41	101.8958
42	101.5669
43	101.1883
44	101.3902
45	101.4799
46	101.9395
47	101.5205
48	101.1125
49	101.1796
50	101.0888
51	100.9314
52	100.1651
53	100.65
54	100.0886
55	100.0743
56	100.7231
57	100.4888
58	99.8144
59	100.2856
60	99.8933
61	100.6676
62	100.4669
63	100.3348
64	100.1836
65	99.2629
66	98.6829
67	98.4814
68	98.7553
69	98.0737
70	97.561
71	97.7872
72	97.4545
73	97.7509
74	97.9116
75	98.7524
76	98.9388
77	98.8047
78	99.285
79	99.0419
80	99.5394
81	99.4306
82	99.5939
83	100.1911
84	100.327
85	99.8713
86	99.2649
87	99.1004
88	99.4483
89	99.457
90	100.3033
91	100.5964
92	99.8218
93	99.4878
94	98.4913
95	97.7988
96	97.1899
97	98.8359
98	98.0667
99	100.2606
100	99.4013
101	99.302
102	99.1412
103	99.8309
104	99.7828
105	99.8808
106	99.364
107	99.5507
108	99.6445
109	99.4807
110	99.4347
111	98.6324
112	99.0151
113	99.0735
114	99.9315
115	99.8126
116	99.2922
117	99.8565
118	100.208
119	99.8563
120	100.2242
121	99.7613
122	100.0486
123	100.1474
124	100.6533
125	100.5013
126	100.4914
127	100.5199
128	100.728
129	100.2594
130	100.3864
131	100.4266
132	100.6818
133	101.4012
134	101.4649
135	101.621
136	101.7843
137	102.2749
138	101.5228
139	101.5278
140	101.506
141	101.3349
142	101.7203
143	101.3557
144	101.2412
145	101.685
146	102.4917
147	103.1775
148	103.6039
149	103.308
150	103.1743
151	102.8576
152	102.8511
153	103.8238
154	103.4242
155	103.4696
156	102.8035
157	103.3938
158	103.5075
159	103.4346
160	102.9702
161	102.123
162	102.5858
163	102.6406
164	102.3324
165	102.4952
166	103.1857
167	102.3289
168	102.1341
169	102.415
170	102.4768
171	102.512
172	102.4936
173	102.3957
174	102.5802
175	103.4356
176	103.2953
177	103.3602
178	103.6067
179	103.4755
180	103.5923
181	103.8528
182	104.0182
183	104.1696
184	104.4361
185	104.6232
186	104.4851
187	104.6493
188	104.7626
189	104.7919
190	105.0014
191	105.0671
192	105.1009
193	104.8957
194	104.8358
195	105.1004
196	105.2991
197	105.4225
198	105.8328
199	105.562
200	105.9305
201	105.745
202	105.9111
203	105.9362
204	106.196
205	106.1919
206	105.9406
207	105.8222
208	106.306
209	106.8397
210	107.0128
211	107.0661
212	106.7153
213	106.6761
214	105.9034
215	105.8085
216	106.0122
217	105.6069
218	105.6544
219	105.6347
220	105.6247
221	106.0461
222	106.4543
223	106.393
224	106.9627
225	107.0459
226	107.4517
227	107.315
228	107.5954
229	107.294
230	107.3662
231	106.9682
232	107.0873
233	107.0078
234	107.0789
235	107.1495
236	107.0245
237	107.3539
238	106.7158
239	106.6587
240	106.6744
241	106.7694
242	106.7293
243	106.6312
244	106.7727
245	106.4389
246	106.5064
247	106.2688
248	106.0939
249	105.7249
250	105.7441
251	105.9777
252	106.3421
253	106.6775
254	107.0442
255	107.3638
256	106.6645
257	106.9951
258	106.4289
259	106.4372
260	106.5056
261	106.595
262	106.8623
263	106.519
264	105.6014
265	105.6974
266	105.2403
267	105.2186
268	105.1875
269	104.9109
270	104.8814
271	105.3047
272	104.9494
273	104.705
274	104.9393
275	104.528
276	104.9571
277	105.5431
278	105.8497
279	105.7849
280	105.1847
281	104.9729
282	105.2915
283	104.9736
284	104.9507
285	105.0249
286	105.4191
287	104.9578
288	105.3277
289	105.2043
290	106.0056
291	105.7831
292	105.5228
293	105.3065
294	105.8908
295	105.776
296	106.0247
297	106.197
298	105.9862
299	106.2025
300	105.7583
301	106.5823
302	106.6027
303	106.7238
304	106.4629
305	106.3457
306	106.22
307	106.2108
308	106.2137
309	106.3102
310	106.2287
311	107.1903
312	107.5134
313	107.0387
314	108.8337
315	109.0568
316	108.9289
317	108.5548
318	108.9171
319	108.8484
320	108.5498
321	108.231
322	108.1386
323	108.4816
324	108.2478
325	108.2954
326	108.7738
327	109.1544
328	109.3733
329	109.5966
330	109.6765
331	109.7966
332	109.5534
333	109.5106
334	110.3494
335	110.3406
336	110.3532
337	110.4618
338	110.3668
339	110.2106
340	109.7401
341	109.8839
342	110.1024
343	109.9021
344	109.9021
345	109.9676
346	110.3538
347	110.8233
348	110.6339
349	109.9823
350	109.6277
351	109.5113
352	109.7127
353	109.2127
354	109.0111
355	109.7553
356	109.5244
357	109.8055
358	109.9426
359	110.2471
360	110.4407
361	110.2746
362	109.8161
363	109.9421
364	109.9179
365	109.5125
366	109.2648

USA500IDXUSD average seasonal curve, 1980 to 2025

Index

Value

100

99.8821

99.8619

99.9411

99.5492

100.2098

99.7978

100.0752

100.0104

100.1126

100.4549

100.622

100.5037

100.3771

100.8214

100.6833

100.6845

100.1006

99.8645

99.9132

99.9377

100.0783

100.6542

100.4527

100.3505

100.6332

100.5257

100.9208

101.0114

100.8206

101.0202

101.8988

101.8623

101.804

101.5418

101.1801

101.8091

101.9543

102.0391

102.2491

101.8958

101.5669

101.1883

101.3902

101.4799

101.9395

101.5205

101.1125

101.1796

101.0888

100.9314

100.1651

100.65

100.0886

100.0743

100.7231

100.4888

99.8144

100.2856

99.8933

100.6676

100.4669

100.3348

100.1836

99.2629

98.6829

98.4814

98.7553

98.0737

97.561

97.7872

97.4545

97.7509

97.9116

98.7524

98.9388

98.8047

99.285

99.0419

99.5394

99.4306

99.5939

100.1911

100.327

99.8713

99.2649

99.1004

99.4483

99.457

100.3033

100.5964

99.8218

99.4878

98.4913

97.7988

97.1899

98.8359

98.0667

100.2606

100

99.4013

101

99.302

102

99.1412

103

99.8309

104

99.7828

105

99.8808

106

99.364

107

99.5507

108

99.6445

109

99.4807

110

99.4347

111

98.6324

112

99.0151

113

99.0735

114

99.9315

115

99.8126

116

99.2922

117

99.8565

118

100.208

119

99.8563

120

100.2242

121

99.7613

122

100.0486

123

100.1474

124

100.6533

125

100.5013

126

100.4914

127

100.5199

128

100.728

129

100.2594

130

100.3864

131

100.4266

132

100.6818

133

101.4012

134

101.4649

135

101.621

136

101.7843

137

102.2749

138

101.5228

139

101.5278

140

101.506

141

101.3349

142

101.7203

143

101.3557

144

101.2412

145

101.685

146

102.4917

147

103.1775

148

103.6039

149

103.308

150

103.1743

151

102.8576

152

102.8511

153

103.8238

154

103.4242

155

103.4696

156

102.8035

157

103.3938

158

103.5075

159

103.4346

160

102.9702

161

102.123

162

102.5858

163

102.6406

164

102.3324

165

102.4952

166

103.1857

167

102.3289

168

102.1341

169

102.415

170

102.4768

171

102.512

172

102.4936

173

102.3957

174

102.5802

175

103.4356

176

103.2953

177

103.3602

178

103.6067

179

103.4755

180

103.5923

181

103.8528

182

104.0182

183

104.1696

184

104.4361

185

104.6232

186

104.4851

187

104.6493

188

104.7626

189

104.7919

190

105.0014

191

105.0671

192

105.1009

193

104.8957

194

104.8358

195

105.1004

196

105.2991

197

105.4225

198

105.8328

199

105.562

200

105.9305

201

105.745

202

105.9111

203

105.9362

204

106.196

205

106.1919

206

105.9406

207

105.8222

208

106.306

209

106.8397

210

107.0128

211

107.0661

212

106.7153

213

106.6761

214

105.9034

215

105.8085

216

106.0122

217

105.6069

218

105.6544

219

105.6347

220

105.6247

221

106.0461

222

106.4543

223

106.393

224

106.9627

225

107.0459

226

107.4517

227

107.315

228

107.5954

229

107.294

230

107.3662

231

106.9682

232

107.0873

233

107.0078

234

107.0789

235

107.1495

236

107.0245

237

107.3539

238

106.7158

239

106.6587

240

106.6744

241

106.7694

242

106.7293

243

106.6312

244

106.7727

245

106.4389

246

106.5064

247

106.2688

248

106.0939

249

105.7249

250

105.7441

251

105.9777

252

106.3421

253

106.6775

254

107.0442

255

107.3638

256

106.6645

257

106.9951

258

106.4289

259

106.4372

260

106.5056

261

106.595

262

106.8623

263

106.519

264

105.6014

265

105.6974

266

105.2403

267

105.2186

268

105.1875

269

104.9109

270

104.8814

271

105.3047

272

104.9494

273

104.705

274

104.9393

275

104.528

276

104.9571

277

105.5431

278

105.8497

279

105.7849

280

105.1847

281

104.9729

282

105.2915

283

104.9736

284

104.9507

285

105.0249

286

105.4191

287

104.9578

288

105.3277

289

105.2043

290

106.0056

291

105.7831

292

105.5228

293

105.3065

294

105.8908

295

105.776

296

106.0247

297

106.197

298

105.9862

299

106.2025

300

105.7583

301

106.5823

302

106.6027

303

106.7238

304

106.4629

305

106.3457

306

106.22

307

106.2108

308

106.2137

309

106.3102

310

106.2287

311

107.1903

312

107.5134

313

107.0387

314

108.8337

315

109.0568

316

108.9289

317

108.5548

318

108.9171

319

108.8484

320

108.5498

321

108.231

322

108.1386

323

108.4816

324

108.2478

325

108.2954

326

108.7738

327

109.1544

328

109.3733

329

109.5966

330

109.6765

331

109.7966

332

109.5534

333

109.5106

334

110.3494

335

110.3406

336

110.3532

337

110.4618

338

110.3668

339

110.2106

340

109.7401

341

109.8839

342

110.1024

343

109.9021

344

109.9021

345

109.9676

346

110.3538

347

110.8233

348

110.6339

349

109.9823

350

109.6277

351

109.5113

352

109.7127

353

109.2127

354

109.0111

355

109.7553

356

109.5244

357

109.8055

358

109.9426

359

110.2471

360

110.4407

361

110.2746

362

109.8161

363

109.9421

364

109.9179

365

109.5125

366

109.2648