Energy

US Light Crude Oil (LIGHTCMDUSD) Seasonality

Over 1983 to 2025 (43 years of data), LIGHTCMDUSD has tended to move short between 10.10 and 23.11, closing higher in 74.4% of those years for an average +3.73% move and an annualized Sharpe of 0.88.

Years: 1983-2025
Category: Energy
Windows: 8

Best window

10.10 - 23.11

Direction

Short

Win rate

74.4%

Avg return

+3.73%

Sample

43 yrs

Average seasonal curve

Average path across the year

1983-2025

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
10.10 → 23.11	Short	74.4%	+3.73%	0.88	43
10.10 → 22.11	Short	74.4%	+3.54%	0.85	43
11.10 → 20.11	Short	72.1%

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LIGHTCMDUSD average seasonal curve, 1983 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	99.9265
3	100.0726
4	99.1719
5	100.1576
6	99.8238
7	99.9542
8	99.5294
9	100.4263
10	100.7571
11	103.1815
12	104.0076
13	104.895
14	105.0795
15	105.1126
16	104.0845
17	104.6138
18	104.964
19	105.2071
20	104.8978
21	105.1329
22	104.975
23	105.588
24	105.1663
25	105.9273
26	106.6974
27	106.5213
28	107.1874
29	107.3906
30	107.1871
31	107.317
32	105.4013
33	104.0792
34	104.0571
35	104.8563
36	103.9572
37	104.4667
38	105.5016
39	105.9146
40	106.28
41	107.1731
42	108.4832
43	107.2544
44	107.5962
45	106.92
46	106.7333
47	106.6591
48	106.083
49	107.178
50	107.7784
51	108.1093
52	107.2624
53	106.3424
54	106.7415
55	107.477
56	106.1406
57	106.3052
58	108.4307
59	108.3767
60	112.4621
61	113.6542
62	114.6968
63	115.924
64	115.9572
65	121.7773
66	120.1175
67	124.9459
68	116.2192
69	114.8407
70	117.2676
71	118.8746
72	117.9752
73	116.432
74	114.209
75	113.6208
76	114.5144
77	115.3415
78	115.154
79	117.1229
80	118.6923
81	118.0815
82	116.8427
83	116.3124
84	117.0642
85	118.2761
86	120.7613
87	119.3428
88	120.3645
89	122.0786
90	120.5689
91	119.5233
92	123.5956
93	122.8444
94	122.7482
95	122.7583
96	120.5205
97	117.1799
98	115.8998
99	118.6702
100	115.8293
101	116.8364
102	120.7249
103	119.0101
104	118.2758
105	118.4296
106	118.5264
107	117.0419
108	116.1851
109	115.8409
110	114.2897
111	115.8982
112	116.4312
113	116.6943
114	116.8033
115	115.8705
116	116.3735
117	116.5466
118	118.086
119	119.0291
120	117.4186
121	116.5336
122	114.5523
123	112.6003
124	113.4966
125	113.7621
126	114.3198
127	114.1694
128	114.4513
129	113.878
130	113.8678
131	114.4366
132	115.4424
133	116.4807
134	115.4677
135	116.4285
136	117.1066
137	118.0384
138	116.2952
139	117.3912
140	116.731
141	115.8025
142	115.289
143	115.6611
144	114.6813
145	114.0141
146	115.4531
147	114.795
148	115.0868
149	114.8224
150	113.8361
151	112.7406
152	114.0396
153	116.5241
154	117.2559
155	116.0584
156	114.7807
157	115.4791
158	116.8233
159	116.3106
160	115.6873
161	116.1888
162	116.5366
163	115.1294
164	117.5268
165	115.867
166	116.2288
167	114.3853
168	113.3521
169	113.6804
170	114.4109
171	114.2633
172	115.379
173	112.5096
174	109.1173
175	108.5462
176	109.506
177	108.686
178	108.8304
179	109.7605
180	109.4041
181	108.9272
182	108.9458
183	110.1236
184	109.932
185	110.6395
186	108.909
187	107.9306
188	110.0888
189	110.5358
190	110.2795
191	109.4729
192	110.5311
193	109.0312
194	109.4997
195	108.583
196	108.782
197	108.106
198	107.7775
199	108.8125
200	108.7047
201	108.17
202	107.5862
203	107.4196
204	107.064
205	107.6689
206	107.7371
207	107.7228
208	108.0022
209	108.6783
210	109.8485
211	109.7008
212	109.5306
213	108.9699
214	107.837
215	106.883
216	106.1692
217	105.9161
218	105.7671
219	104.9591
220	106.1729
221	106.7432
222	106.9269
223	107.7641
224	106.9121
225	107.5084
226	107.477
227	105.6948
228	104.7292
229	104.1827
230	105.4944
231	105.08
232	104.8599
233	104.654
234	104.5588
235	105.3137
236	106.2439
237	106.3576
238	106.0811
239	106.7485
240	106.4511
241	107.2207
242	106.5536
243	105.7871
244	106.1623
245	106.2532
246	105.8614
247	104.9093
248	104.5897
249	104.296
250	102.6313
251	103.0499
252	104.0579
253	104.3671
254	103.2149
255	104.4302
256	104.9131
257	105.7025
258	105.0003
259	105.4682
260	105.5588
261	105.3108
262	104.8155
263	104.6144
264	104.5661
265	104.8302
266	104.1401
267	104.4122
268	104.7027
269	103.5111
270	104.0575
271	104.8007
272	103.8993
273	103.1062
274	102.9671
275	103.3522
276	103.8814
277	104.3133
278	104.758
279	104.9786
280	105.9919
281	107.6514
282	106.5744
283	104.7009
284	104.1516
285	104.3284
286	105.8061
287	104.3195
288	103.5611
289	102.4527
290	102.4472
291	101.5355
292	102.2654
293	102.0223
294	102.3512
295	103.4548
296	104.0897
297	103.2183
298	103.3698
299	104.3177
300	104.5716
301	103.294
302	102.9044
303	102.3057
304	102.1116
305	103.0757
306	103.3582
307	102.5823
308	103.7281
309	103.8115
310	103.5463
311	102.7768
312	101.8506
313	100.6135
314	101.2562
315	102.1429
316	100.4674
317	101.3068
318	100.4968
319	100.5587
320	98.6145
321	98.7516
322	98.597
323	98.9263
324	99.0178
325	98.8162
326	99.1097
327	98.2999
328	98.6726
329	98.0579
330	97.404
331	97.4038
332	97.7017
333	98.5341
334	98.5779
335	98.4904
336	97.9734
337	98.1647
338	98.7334
339	97.2664
340	95.7195
341	94.9758
342	94.804
343	94.5512
344	94.9087
345	94.8604
346	94.9164
347	95.7511
348	96.9793
349	96.4503
350	95.5801
351	95.8932
352	95.7244
353	96.4073
354	96.2865
355	97.1383
356	97.3597
357	97.8165
358	97.7241
359	98.0671
360	98.3242
361	97.5551
362	96.996
363	96.9953
364	97.5558
365	97.5927
366	98.4659

LIGHTCMDUSD average seasonal curve, 1983 to 2025

Index

Value

100

99.9265

100.0726

99.1719

100.1576

99.8238

99.9542

99.5294

100.4263

100.7571

103.1815

104.0076

104.895

105.0795

105.1126

104.0845

104.6138

104.964

105.2071

104.8978

105.1329

104.975

105.588

105.1663

105.9273

106.6974

106.5213

107.1874

107.3906

107.1871

107.317

105.4013

104.0792

104.0571

104.8563

103.9572

104.4667

105.5016

105.9146

106.28

107.1731

108.4832

107.2544

107.5962

106.92

106.7333

106.6591

106.083

107.178

107.7784

108.1093

107.2624

106.3424

106.7415

107.477

106.1406

106.3052

108.4307

108.3767

112.4621

113.6542

114.6968

115.924

115.9572

121.7773

120.1175

124.9459

116.2192

114.8407

117.2676

118.8746

117.9752

116.432

114.209

113.6208

114.5144

115.3415

115.154

117.1229

118.6923

118.0815

116.8427

116.3124

117.0642

118.2761

120.7613

119.3428

120.3645

122.0786

120.5689

119.5233

123.5956

122.8444

122.7482

122.7583

120.5205

117.1799

115.8998

118.6702

100

115.8293

101

116.8364

102

120.7249

103

119.0101

104

118.2758

105

118.4296

106

118.5264

107

117.0419

108

116.1851

109

115.8409

110

114.2897

111

115.8982

112

116.4312

113

116.6943

114

116.8033

115

115.8705

116

116.3735

117

116.5466

118

118.086

119

119.0291

120

117.4186

121

116.5336

122

114.5523

123

112.6003

124

113.4966

125

113.7621

126

114.3198

127

114.1694

128

114.4513

129

113.878

130

113.8678

131

114.4366

132

115.4424

133

116.4807

134

115.4677

135

116.4285

136

117.1066

137

118.0384

138

116.2952

139

117.3912

140

116.731

141

115.8025

142

115.289

143

115.6611

144

114.6813

145

114.0141

146

115.4531

147

114.795

148

115.0868

149

114.8224

150

113.8361

151

112.7406

152

114.0396

153

116.5241

154

117.2559

155

116.0584

156

114.7807

157

115.4791

158

116.8233

159

116.3106

160

115.6873

161

116.1888

162

116.5366

163

115.1294

164

117.5268

165

115.867

166

116.2288

167

114.3853

168

113.3521

169

113.6804

170

114.4109

171

114.2633

172

115.379

173

112.5096

174

109.1173

175

108.5462

176

109.506

177

108.686

178

108.8304

179

109.7605

180

109.4041

181

108.9272

182

108.9458

183

110.1236

184

109.932

185

110.6395

186

108.909

187

107.9306

188

110.0888

189

110.5358

190

110.2795

191

109.4729

192

110.5311

193

109.0312

194

109.4997

195

108.583

196

108.782

197

108.106

198

107.7775

199

108.8125

200

108.7047

201

108.17

202

107.5862

203

107.4196

204

107.064

205

107.6689

206

107.7371

207

107.7228

208

108.0022

209

108.6783

210

109.8485

211

109.7008

212

109.5306

213

108.9699

214

107.837

215

106.883

216

106.1692

217

105.9161

218

105.7671

219

104.9591

220

106.1729

221

106.7432

222

106.9269

223

107.7641

224

106.9121

225

107.5084

226

107.477

227

105.6948

228

104.7292

229

104.1827

230

105.4944

231

105.08

232

104.8599

233

104.654

234

104.5588

235

105.3137

236

106.2439

237

106.3576

238

106.0811

239

106.7485

240

106.4511

241

107.2207

242

106.5536

243

105.7871

244

106.1623

245

106.2532

246

105.8614

247

104.9093

248

104.5897

249

104.296

250

102.6313

251

103.0499

252

104.0579

253

104.3671

254

103.2149

255

104.4302

256

104.9131

257

105.7025

258

105.0003

259

105.4682

260

105.5588

261

105.3108

262

104.8155

263

104.6144

264

104.5661

265

104.8302

266

104.1401

267

104.4122

268

104.7027

269

103.5111

270

104.0575

271

104.8007

272

103.8993

273

103.1062

274

102.9671

275

103.3522

276

103.8814

277

104.3133

278

104.758

279

104.9786

280

105.9919

281

107.6514

282

106.5744

283

104.7009

284

104.1516

285

104.3284

286

105.8061

287

104.3195

288

103.5611

289

102.4527

290

102.4472

291

101.5355

292

102.2654

293

102.0223

294

102.3512

295

103.4548

296

104.0897

297

103.2183

298

103.3698

299

104.3177

300

104.5716

301

103.294

302

102.9044

303

102.3057

304

102.1116

305

103.0757

306

103.3582

307

102.5823

308

103.7281

309

103.8115

310

103.5463

311

102.7768

312

101.8506

313

100.6135

314

101.2562

315

102.1429

316

100.4674

317

101.3068

318

100.4968

319

100.5587

320

98.6145

321

98.7516

322

98.597

323

98.9263

324

99.0178

325

98.8162

326

99.1097

327

98.2999

328

98.6726

329

98.0579

330

97.404

331

97.4038

332

97.7017

333

98.5341

334

98.5779

335

98.4904

336

97.9734

337

98.1647

338

98.7334

339

97.2664

340

95.7195

341

94.9758

342

94.804

343

94.5512

344

94.9087

345

94.8604

346

94.9164

347

95.7511

348

96.9793

349

96.4503

350

95.5801

351

95.8932

352

95.7244

353

96.4073

354

96.2865

355

97.1383

356

97.3597

357

97.8165

358

97.7241

359

98.0671

360

98.3242

361

97.5551

362

96.996

363

96.9953

364

97.5558

365

97.5927

366

98.4659