Over 2017 to 2025 (9 years of data), HESUSUSD has tended to move long between 07.07 and 31.07, closing higher in 75.0% of those years for an average +2.81% move and an annualized Sharpe of 1.91.
| Window | Dir | Win rate | Avg return | Sharpe | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07.07 → 31.07 | Long | 75.0% | +2.81% | 1.91 | 8 |
| 09.07 → 14.07 | Short | 75.0% | +2.03% | 5.86 | 8 |
| 09.07 → 17.07 | Short | 75.0% | +1.85% | 2.59 | 8 |
| 10.07 → 16.07 | Short | 75.0% | +1.58% | 2.19 | 8 |
| 08.07 → 17.07 | Short | 75.0% | +1.27% | 1.92 | 8 |
| 09.07 → 03.08 | Short | 75.0% | +1.16% | 0.57 | 8 |
| 10.07 → 15.07 | Short | 75.0% | +1.13% | 1.79 | 8 |
| 09.07 → 22.08 | Short | 75.0% | +1.06% | 0.26 | 8 |