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Pound Sterling vs US Dollar (GBPUSD) Seasonality

Over 1986 to 2025 (40 years of data), GBPUSD has tended to move long between 11.07 and 28.07, closing higher in 70.0% of those years for an average +0.47% move and an annualized Sharpe of 1.40.

Average seasonal curve

GBPUSD average seasonal curve, 1986 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	99.6477
3	99.5271
4	99.611
5	99.5863
6	99.6738
7	99.658
8	99.6896
9	99.611
10	99.6231
11	99.7402
12	99.7765
13	99.713
14	99.7384
15	99.5787
16	99.4635
17	99.6471
18	99.6522
19	99.5047
20	99.5245
21	99.6095
22	99.7061
23	99.7787
24	99.8061
25	99.7636
26	99.9188
27	99.9747
28	99.9289
29	99.8722
30	99.9571
31	100.0916
32	100.1945
33	99.9126
34	99.9065
35	99.9063
36	99.7775
37	99.7082
38	99.641
39	99.5786
40	99.6507
41	99.5637
42	99.5611
43	99.7123
44	99.7669
45	99.8587
46	99.8447
47	99.806
48	99.7774
49	99.7233
50	99.7914
51	99.7042
52	99.6637

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
11.07 → 28.07	Long	70.0%	+0.47%	1.40	40
11.07 → 31.07	Long	65.0%	+0.58%	1.29	40
11.07 → 29.07	Long	65.0%	+0.50%	1.35	40
11.07 → 26.07	Long	65.0%	+0.41%	1.37	40
12.07 → 16.07	Long	65.0%	+0.25%	2.47	40
12.07 → 31.07	Long	62.5%	+0.69%	1.46	40
12.07 → 28.07	Long	62.5%

Explore further

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