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Pound Sterling vs US Dollar (GBPUSD) Seasonality

Over 1986 to 2025 (40 years of data), GBPUSD has tended to move long between 07.07 and 27.07, closing higher in 72.5% of those years for an average +0.65% move and an annualized Sharpe of 1.63.

Average seasonal curve

GBPUSD average seasonal curve, 1986 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	99.7596
3	99.69
4	99.7248
5	99.6667
6	99.6809
7	99.6175
8	99.6318
9	99.5325
10	99.4856
11	99.5938
12	99.6975
13	99.6774
14	99.6458
15	99.4321
16	99.3602
17	99.5214
18	99.5621
19	99.5278
20	99.5704
21	99.6036
22	99.6563
23	99.7279
24	99.76
25	99.7428
26	99.7628
27	99.7306
28	99.6741
29	99.5796
30	99.5748
31	99.6497
32	99.6606
33	99.4827
34	99.4437
35	99.4689
36	99.4659
37	99.3923
38	99.3363
39	99.2792
40	99.348
41	99.2389
42	99.1828
43	99.2414
44	99.29
45	99.4197
46	99.356
47	99.4723
48	99.4696
49	99.4226
50	99.4712
51	99.4172
52	99.3643

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
07.07 → 27.07	Long	72.5%	+0.65%	1.63	40
09.07 → 28.07	Long	72.5%	+0.57%	1.47	40
07.07 → 28.07	Long	70.0%	+0.64%	1.47	40
09.07 → 27.07	Long	70.0%	+0.58%	1.61	40
09.07 → 31.07	Long	70.0%	+0.56%	1.16	40
09.07 → 29.07	Long	70.0%	+0.53%	1.27	40
09.07 → 30.07	Long	67.5%

Explore further

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