Forex major currencies

Pound Sterling vs US Dollar (GBPUSD) Seasonality

Over 1986 to 2025 (40 years of data), GBPUSD has tended to move long between 12.10 and 15.10, closing higher in 72.5% of those years for an average +0.35% move and an annualized Sharpe of 3.64.

Years: 1986-2025
Category: Forex major currencies
Windows: 8

Best window

12.10 - 15.10

Direction

Long

Win rate

72.5%

Avg return

+0.35%

Sample

40 yrs

Average seasonal curve

Average path across the year

1986-2025

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
12.10 → 15.10	Long	72.5%	+0.35%	3.64	40
10.10 → 18.10	Long	65.0%	+0.35%	1.38	40
11.10 → 15.10	Long	65.0%

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GBPUSD average seasonal curve, 1986 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	99.5304
3	99.4517
4	99.6657
5	99.6649
6	100.0197
7	99.9777
8	99.8465
9	99.765
10	99.5985
11	99.7277
12	99.9872
13	99.9957
14	99.8999
15	99.831
16	99.669
17	99.6929
18	99.8171
19	99.9424
20	100.2167
21	100.1216
22	100.2323
23	100.4359
24	100.5002
25	100.6849
26	100.6079
27	100.6719
28	100.6503
29	100.6752
30	100.3441
31	100.2676
32	100.6142
33	100.0455
34	100.0869
35	99.9542
36	99.6555
37	99.7715
38	99.8
39	99.8392
40	99.9943
41	99.8038
42	99.9652
43	99.9297
44	100.2856
45	100.2642
46	100.0927
47	100.0207
48	100.1256
49	100.0073
50	99.8505
51	100.0899
52	100.1686
53	100.1817
54	100.0576
55	99.6165
56	99.8481
57	99.8065
58	99.7841
59	99.7478
60	99.4453
61	99.4981
62	99.6583
63	99.6552
64	99.7994
65	99.8749
66	99.4971
67	99.4695
68	99.9898
69	99.9407
70	99.8882
71	99.8992
72	99.8279
73	99.7059
74	99.5732
75	99.8657
76	100.153
77	100.0647
78	100.3357
79	100.2409
80	100.2197
81	100.2295
82	100.2021
83	100.0798
84	100.012
85	99.9528
86	100.0098
87	99.9147
88	99.8531
89	99.9363
90	99.9353
91	100.0091
92	99.876
93	100.1304
94	100.0849
95	99.9515
96	99.9952
97	99.9299
98	99.9229
99	100.1219
100	100.3841
101	100.3552
102	100.362
103	100.6027
104	100.5597
105	100.6482
106	100.5434
107	100.5127
108	100.5889
109	100.5285
110	100.6357
111	100.6272
112	100.1658
113	100.0822
114	100.5117
115	100.2088
116	100.1081
117	100.0677
118	100.2476
119	100.3551
120	100.4616
121	100.1338
122	100.0445
123	100.2133
124	100.3736
125	100.1176
126	100.1994
127	100.0925
128	99.9764
129	100.0847
130	100.0459
131	99.7338
132	99.3234
133	99.5847
134	99.3953
135	99.5046
136	99.6757
137	99.8863
138	99.8132
139	100.0808
140	100.2306
141	100.3002
142	100.2901
143	100.5523
144	100.4693
145	100.5482
146	100.6222
147	100.5018
148	100.4786
149	100.5614
150	100.5373
151	100.5909
152	100.5743
153	100.7147
154	100.4936
155	100.5995
156	100.4623
157	100.4563
158	100.5799
159	100.5964
160	100.631
161	100.2601
162	100.4309
163	100.3699
164	100.294
165	100.182
166	100.4433
167	100.8266
168	100.2174
169	100.1139
170	100.2021
171	100.1623
172	100.0588
173	100.0238
174	100.0751
175	100.1212
176	100.3608
177	100.4239
178	100.3355
179	100.0897
180	100.0393
181	100.2255
182	100.1861
183	100.1345
184	100.2528
185	100.369
186	100.096
187	100.2753
188	100.5611
189	100.4949
190	100.5343
191	100.4857
192	100.3578
193	100.527
194	100.8179
195	100.6132
196	100.5693
197	100.6032
198	100.6677
199	100.7191
200	100.5676
201	100.3619
202	100.4862
203	100.5728
204	100.6559
205	100.4218
206	100.5462
207	100.502
208	100.5235
209	100.5062
210	100.504
211	100.3577
212	100.2049
213	100.424
214	99.9229
215	100.0462
216	100.1324
217	99.9586
218	100.0562
219	100.0744
220	100.0432
221	100.0819
222	100.2514
223	100.2421
224	100.2295
225	100.389
226	100.435
227	100.3107
228	100.4711
229	100.5538
230	100.2598
231	100.0513
232	100.11
233	100.1292
234	100.2356
235	100.3339
236	100.2182
237	100.1616
238	100.0583
239	100.0907
240	100.1437
241	100.1304
242	100.0982
243	99.8748
244	99.713
245	99.4004
246	99.5157
247	99.4784
248	99.6898
249	99.5327
250	99.4231
251	99.4935
252	99.5707
253	99.5332
254	99.6928
255	99.6952
256	99.5162
257	99.4208
258	99.2933
259	99.3358
260	99.4477
261	99.2771
262	99.236
263	99.136
264	98.9113
265	98.9074
266	98.1756
267	98.1265
268	97.929
269	97.7011
270	97.7522
271	98.0088
272	98.6423
273	98.64
274	98.6817
275	98.2811
276	98.6412
277	98.7317
278	98.5614
279	98.3702
280	98.1754
281	98.0674
282	97.9481
283	98.0573
284	97.8862
285	97.9018
286	98.1732
287	97.9134
288	98.0906
289	98.3485
290	98.3392
291	98.2079
292	98.1108
293	98.1398
294	98.22
295	98.1055
296	98.2742
297	97.9511
298	98.2024
299	98.5711
300	98.4426
301	98.4317
302	98.3248
303	98.3771
304	98.0426
305	98.0368
306	97.8795
307	97.8104
308	98.0523
309	98.0925
310	98.2328
311	98.247
312	98.4546
313	97.9032
314	98.5174
315	98.7156
316	98.6241
317	98.4749
318	98.7158
319	98.754
320	98.7031
321	98.6743
322	98.7203
323	98.6759
324	98.8155
325	98.7281
326	98.6445
327	98.9193
328	99.1018
329	99.2526
330	99.283
331	99.3424
332	99.4527
333	99.4322
334	99.6094
335	99.9797
336	99.9888
337	100.1243
338	100.0172
339	99.8295
340	99.7672
341	99.9087
342	99.8833
343	99.9164
344	100.06
345	100.0645
346	100.0798
347	100.1624
348	100.4075
349	99.9019
350	99.8984
351	99.9169
352	99.9741
353	99.8486
354	99.6513
355	99.6461
356	99.7333
357	99.8052
358	99.7132
359	99.774
360	99.857
361	99.8545
362	99.8357
363	99.8907
364	99.9017
365	99.8636
366	99.5691

GBPUSD average seasonal curve, 1986 to 2025

Index

Value

100

99.5304

99.4517

99.6657

99.6649

100.0197

99.9777

99.8465

99.765

99.5985

99.7277

99.9872

99.9957

99.8999

99.831

99.669

99.6929

99.8171

99.9424

100.2167

100.1216

100.2323

100.4359

100.5002

100.6849

100.6079

100.6719

100.6503

100.6752

100.3441

100.2676

100.6142

100.0455

100.0869

99.9542

99.6555

99.7715

99.8

99.8392

99.9943

99.8038

99.9652

99.9297

100.2856

100.2642

100.0927

100.0207

100.1256

100.0073

99.8505

100.0899

100.1686

100.1817

100.0576

99.6165

99.8481

99.8065

99.7841

99.7478

99.4453

99.4981

99.6583

99.6552

99.7994

99.8749

99.4971

99.4695

99.9898

99.9407

99.8882

99.8992

99.8279

99.7059

99.5732

99.8657

100.153

100.0647

100.3357

100.2409

100.2197

100.2295

100.2021

100.0798

100.012

99.9528

100.0098

99.9147

99.8531

99.9363

99.9353

100.0091

99.876

100.1304

100.0849

99.9515

99.9952

99.9299

99.9229

100.1219

100

100.3841

101

100.3552

102

100.362

103

100.6027

104

100.5597

105

100.6482

106

100.5434

107

100.5127

108

100.5889

109

100.5285

110

100.6357

111

100.6272

112

100.1658

113

100.0822

114

100.5117

115

100.2088

116

100.1081

117

100.0677

118

100.2476

119

100.3551

120

100.4616

121

100.1338

122

100.0445

123

100.2133

124

100.3736

125

100.1176

126

100.1994

127

100.0925

128

99.9764

129

100.0847

130

100.0459

131

99.7338

132

99.3234

133

99.5847

134

99.3953

135

99.5046

136

99.6757

137

99.8863

138

99.8132

139

100.0808

140

100.2306

141

100.3002

142

100.2901

143

100.5523

144

100.4693

145

100.5482

146

100.6222

147

100.5018

148

100.4786

149

100.5614

150

100.5373

151

100.5909

152

100.5743

153

100.7147

154

100.4936

155

100.5995

156

100.4623

157

100.4563

158

100.5799

159

100.5964

160

100.631

161

100.2601

162

100.4309

163

100.3699

164

100.294

165

100.182

166

100.4433

167

100.8266

168

100.2174

169

100.1139

170

100.2021

171

100.1623

172

100.0588

173

100.0238

174

100.0751

175

100.1212

176

100.3608

177

100.4239

178

100.3355

179

100.0897

180

100.0393

181

100.2255

182

100.1861

183

100.1345

184

100.2528

185

100.369

186

100.096

187

100.2753

188

100.5611

189

100.4949

190

100.5343

191

100.4857

192

100.3578

193

100.527

194

100.8179

195

100.6132

196

100.5693

197

100.6032

198

100.6677

199

100.7191

200

100.5676

201

100.3619

202

100.4862

203

100.5728

204

100.6559

205

100.4218

206

100.5462

207

100.502

208

100.5235

209

100.5062

210

100.504

211

100.3577

212

100.2049

213

100.424

214

99.9229

215

100.0462

216

100.1324

217

99.9586

218

100.0562

219

100.0744

220

100.0432

221

100.0819

222

100.2514

223

100.2421

224

100.2295

225

100.389

226

100.435

227

100.3107

228

100.4711

229

100.5538

230

100.2598

231

100.0513

232

100.11

233

100.1292

234

100.2356

235

100.3339

236

100.2182

237

100.1616

238

100.0583

239

100.0907

240

100.1437

241

100.1304

242

100.0982

243

99.8748

244

99.713

245

99.4004

246

99.5157

247

99.4784

248

99.6898

249

99.5327

250

99.4231

251

99.4935

252

99.5707

253

99.5332

254

99.6928

255

99.6952

256

99.5162

257

99.4208

258

99.2933

259

99.3358

260

99.4477

261

99.2771

262

99.236

263

99.136

264

98.9113

265

98.9074

266

98.1756

267

98.1265

268

97.929

269

97.7011

270

97.7522

271

98.0088

272

98.6423

273

98.64

274

98.6817

275

98.2811

276

98.6412

277

98.7317

278

98.5614

279

98.3702

280

98.1754

281

98.0674

282

97.9481

283

98.0573

284

97.8862

285

97.9018

286

98.1732

287

97.9134

288

98.0906

289

98.3485

290

98.3392

291

98.2079

292

98.1108

293

98.1398

294

98.22

295

98.1055

296

98.2742

297

97.9511

298

98.2024

299

98.5711

300

98.4426

301

98.4317

302

98.3248

303

98.3771

304

98.0426

305

98.0368

306

97.8795

307

97.8104

308

98.0523

309

98.0925

310

98.2328

311

98.247

312

98.4546

313

97.9032

314

98.5174

315

98.7156

316

98.6241

317

98.4749

318

98.7158

319

98.754

320

98.7031

321

98.6743

322

98.7203

323

98.6759

324

98.8155

325

98.7281

326

98.6445

327

98.9193

328

99.1018

329

99.2526

330

99.283

331

99.3424

332

99.4527

333

99.4322

334

99.6094

335

99.9797

336

99.9888

337

100.1243

338

100.0172

339

99.8295

340

99.7672

341

99.9087

342

99.8833

343

99.9164

344

100.06

345

100.0645

346

100.0798

347

100.1624

348

100.4075

349

99.9019

350

99.8984

351

99.9169

352

99.9741

353

99.8486

354

99.6513

355

99.6461

356

99.7333

357

99.8052

358

99.7132

359

99.774

360

99.857

361

99.8545

362

99.8357

363

99.8907

364

99.9017

365

99.8636

366

99.5691