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Pound Sterling vs Canadian Dollar (GBPCAD) Seasonality

Over 1990 to 2025 (36 years of data), GBPCAD has tended to move long between 07.07 and 04.08, closing higher in 71.4% of those years for an average +1.12% move and an annualized Sharpe of 1.29.

Average seasonal curve

GBPCAD average seasonal curve, 1990 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	99.816
3	100.1515
4	100.0468
5	100.2703
6	100.332
7	100.2465
8	100.1129
9	100.1327
10	100.0669
11	100.0516
12	100.0979
13	100.0938
14	100.0485
15	99.9877
16	100.0179
17	100.1357
18	100.3458
19	100.296
20	100.1374
21	100.2406
22	100.3942
23	100.4056
24	100.6386
25	100.7469
26	100.6625
27	100.7011
28	100.6381
29	100.5172
30	100.5928
31	100.429
32	100.6406
33	100.5619
34	100.2618
35	100.1977
36	100.042
37	100.0421
38	99.805
39	99.9631
40	99.9933
41	99.7306
42	99.8401
43	99.8981
44	100.2296
45	100.1635
46	99.9558
47	100.0245
48	100.1729
49	100.2026
50	100.1342
51	100.2679
52	100.5036

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
07.07 → 04.08	Long	71.4%	+1.12%	1.29	35
07.07 → 05.08	Long	71.4%	+0.98%	1.15	35
07.07 → 06.08	Long	71.4%	+0.98%	1.11	35
08.07 → 27.07	Long	71.4%	+0.70%	1.22	35
09.07 → 13.07	Long	71.4%	+0.34%	2.84	35
09.07 → 04.08	Long	68.6%	+1.12%	1.38	35
08.07 → 04.08	Long	68.6%

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