Energy

Natural Gas (GASCMDUSD) Seasonality

Over 2012 to 2025 (14 years of data), GASCMDUSD has tended to move long between 05.10 and 26.11, closing higher in 78.6% of those years for an average +11.16% move and an annualized Sharpe of 2.33.

Years: 2012-2025
Category: Energy
Windows: 8

Best window

05.10 - 26.11

Direction

Long

Win rate

78.6%

Avg return

+11.16%

Sample

14 yrs

Average seasonal curve

Average path across the year

2012-2025

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
05.10 → 26.11	Long	78.6%	+11.16%	2.33	14
05.10 → 28.11	Long	78.6%	+10.95%	1.67	14
07.10 → 26.11	Long	78.6%

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GASCMDUSD average seasonal curve, 2012 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	99.01
3	98.2016
4	98.5713
5	98.5318
6	98.5733
7	98.4883
8	99.0558
9	99.439
10	99.4804
11	100.7753
12	101.9395
13	101.4924
14	101.536
15	101.5241
16	101.2927
17	100.3244
18	99.5678
19	97.9265
20	97.436
21	97.5243
22	97.833
23	98.7713
24	98.3548
25	97.9261
26	97.3462
27	96.6239
28	96.1248
29	95.9321
30	95.3863
31	94.975
32	94.1456
33	94.7645
34	94.1048
35	93.9402
36	93.9535
37	93.5589
38	93.0501
39	92.627
40	91.8876
41	92.1058
42	92.4357
43	92.0952
44	92.1673
45	92.3975
46	92.3872
47	92.7215
48	92.5976
49	92.609
50	93.3893
51	93.9456
52	93.8428
53	94.0648
54	93.8367
55	93.5924
56	93.236
57	92.2484
58	92.4534
59	92.3551
60	92.7173
61	93.0142
62	93.6441
63	94.3951
64	94.459
65	94.0548
66	93.8976
67	93.3803
68	93.1261
69	93.6871
70	94.2406
71	93.2408
72	93.2218
73	93.1205
74	93.0073
75	93.0488
76	93.1036
77	93.1717
78	93.0617
79	92.6542
80	92.3608
81	92.2153
82	91.8743
83	92.2414
84	92.7999
85	93.3015
86	93.3999
87	93.0599
88	93.398
89	93.4455
90	93.632
91	93.2134
92	93.2464
93	93.428
94	93.5259
95	93.7068
96	93.1702
97	93.6222
98	93.8226
99	93.9386
100	93.9877
101	94.1913
102	93.631
103	94.2581
104	94.3522
105	93.832
106	93.5364
107	94.2017
108	94.9115
109	94.3152
110	94.3716
111	94.5445
112	93.9757
113	94.5776
114	95.1019
115	95.4069
116	95.3745
117	96.2027
118	96.6336
119	97.1208
120	97.4795
121	97.5818
122	97.0249
123	97.0596
124	97.806
125	98.4118
126	97.729
127	97.6507
128	97.9502
129	97.1774
130	97.6975
131	97.9627
132	98.2085
133	97.6471
134	97.6876
135	98.0494
136	97.7695
137	98.3512
138	98.8378
139	98.83
140	99.3753
141	99.3094
142	98.3999
143	99.6154
144	99.4572
145	99.5009
146	100.1268
147	100.793
148	100.4546
149	99.9362
150	98.9354
151	98.1628
152	98.6046
153	98.9732
154	98.9809
155	99.3494
156	99.1849
157	99.7407
158	100.072
159	99.6067
160	100.1189
161	100.1354
162	100.2985
163	100.569
164	100.4533
165	99.4874
166	100.5442
167	100.4042
168	99.9582
169	99.657
170	99.6343
171	99.0182
172	98.9071
173	99.1323
174	98.5324
175	98.9631
176	99.5004
177	98.7751
178	98.9216
179	98.9681
180	98.8764
181	98.7491
182	98.5074
183	98.129
184	98.1523
185	98.2175
186	97.8085
187	97.1019
188	97.7416
189	97.5255
190	97.5771
191	97.9829
192	98.3854
193	97.9514
194	98.0151
195	98.0273
196	98.2453
197	98.0579
198	97.6797
199	98.0601
200	97.912
201	98.3086
202	97.7872
203	98.1527
204	98.1522
205	98.3862
206	98.409
207	97.809
208	97.2839
209	97.0173
210	97.922
211	97.4569
212	97.2761
213	96.7226
214	96.0522
215	96.6214
216	97.4208
217	97.4319
218	97.794
219	97.7621
220	98.3497
221	98.8437
222	98.6705
223	98.8253
224	98.4373
225	98.2828
226	98.4583
227	98.7855
228	98.8233
229	98.4588
230	98.3976
231	98.6666
232	98.8771
233	98.7144
234	98.9369
235	98.2668
236	98.614
237	99.4014
238	100.3612
239	100.6288
240	101.3011
241	101.6508
242	101.4938
243	101.6186
244	102.0135
245	101.3145
246	101.3738
247	101.3835
248	100.8116
249	100.4845
250	100.2736
251	100.6657
252	100.8632
253	100.4632
254	100.6778
255	101.6948
256	102.5031
257	103.0119
258	102.4669
259	102.5523
260	102.3169
261	101.2419
262	100.8809
263	100.7875
264	101.0889
265	100.2624
266	102.3431
267	103.7564
268	103.9994
269	104.3569
270	105.2798
271	105.6426
272	105.206
273	104.7786
274	104.4947
275	104.0357
276	104.3187
277	104.6903
278	105.4401
279	105.3153
280	105.2304
281	105.3106
282	105.1895
283	105.3204
284	105.3658
285	105.5113
286	105.6825
287	105.4127
288	104.5546
289	104.0449
290	103.0872
291	102.7235
292	102.3605
293	102.8212
294	102.1176
295	102.2195
296	101.4817
297	103.3663
298	105.3008
299	106.4435
300	107.5522
301	107.1914
302	106.6626
303	108.3733
304	108.5136
305	107.2287
306	107.8045
307	107.5091
308	108.1591
309	108.8289
310	109.1905
311	108.8161
312	108.27
313	107.2708
314	106.9807
315	107.2183
316	107.4929
317	107.8812
318	109.0516
319	108.454
320	108.705
321	108.4536
322	108.4076
323	108.8028
324	108.5099
325	109.441
326	110.1431
327	110.5897
328	111.2972
329	110.9772
330	111.4203
331	111.5097
332	111.4946
333	110.9765
334	109.9646
335	109.5871
336	108.3649
337	108.0577
338	106.883
339	106.8118
340	106.1126
341	106.0176
342	105.1901
343	105.8623
344	105.5999
345	105.477
346	104.7609
347	104.6222
348	104.0225
349	103.6191
350	102.8252
351	102.7484
352	102.8605
353	102.6596
354	102.6444
355	103.1589
356	102.8047
357	102.5463
358	101.1496
359	101.3849
360	101.6431
361	101.7916
362	101.8273
363	102.2419
364	101.5867
365	101.174
366	100.1863

GASCMDUSD average seasonal curve, 2012 to 2025

Index

Value

100

99.01

98.2016

98.5713

98.5318

98.5733

98.4883

99.0558

99.439

99.4804

100.7753

101.9395

101.4924

101.536

101.5241

101.2927

100.3244

99.5678

97.9265

97.436

97.5243

97.833

98.7713

98.3548

97.9261

97.3462

96.6239

96.1248

95.9321

95.3863

94.975

94.1456

94.7645

94.1048

93.9402

93.9535

93.5589

93.0501

92.627

91.8876

92.1058

92.4357

92.0952

92.1673

92.3975

92.3872

92.7215

92.5976

92.609

93.3893

93.9456

93.8428

94.0648

93.8367

93.5924

93.236

92.2484

92.4534

92.3551

92.7173

93.0142

93.6441

94.3951

94.459

94.0548

93.8976

93.3803

93.1261

93.6871

94.2406

93.2408

93.2218

93.1205

93.0073

93.0488

93.1036

93.1717

93.0617

92.6542

92.3608

92.2153

91.8743

92.2414

92.7999

93.3015

93.3999

93.0599

93.398

93.4455

93.632

93.2134

93.2464

93.428

93.5259

93.7068

93.1702

93.6222

93.8226

93.9386

100

93.9877

101

94.1913

102

93.631

103

94.2581

104

94.3522

105

93.832

106

93.5364

107

94.2017

108

94.9115

109

94.3152

110

94.3716

111

94.5445

112

93.9757

113

94.5776

114

95.1019

115

95.4069

116

95.3745

117

96.2027

118

96.6336

119

97.1208

120

97.4795

121

97.5818

122

97.0249

123

97.0596

124

97.806

125

98.4118

126

97.729

127

97.6507

128

97.9502

129

97.1774

130

97.6975

131

97.9627

132

98.2085

133

97.6471

134

97.6876

135

98.0494

136

97.7695

137

98.3512

138

98.8378

139

98.83

140

99.3753

141

99.3094

142

98.3999

143

99.6154

144

99.4572

145

99.5009

146

100.1268

147

100.793

148

100.4546

149

99.9362

150

98.9354

151

98.1628

152

98.6046

153

98.9732

154

98.9809

155

99.3494

156

99.1849

157

99.7407

158

100.072

159

99.6067

160

100.1189

161

100.1354

162

100.2985

163

100.569

164

100.4533

165

99.4874

166

100.5442

167

100.4042

168

99.9582

169

99.657

170

99.6343

171

99.0182

172

98.9071

173

99.1323

174

98.5324

175

98.9631

176

99.5004

177

98.7751

178

98.9216

179

98.9681

180

98.8764

181

98.7491

182

98.5074

183

98.129

184

98.1523

185

98.2175

186

97.8085

187

97.1019

188

97.7416

189

97.5255

190

97.5771

191

97.9829

192

98.3854

193

97.9514

194

98.0151

195

98.0273

196

98.2453

197

98.0579

198

97.6797

199

98.0601

200

97.912

201

98.3086

202

97.7872

203

98.1527

204

98.1522

205

98.3862

206

98.409

207

97.809

208

97.2839

209

97.0173

210

97.922

211

97.4569

212

97.2761

213

96.7226

214

96.0522

215

96.6214

216

97.4208

217

97.4319

218

97.794

219

97.7621

220

98.3497

221

98.8437

222

98.6705

223

98.8253

224

98.4373

225

98.2828

226

98.4583

227

98.7855

228

98.8233

229

98.4588

230

98.3976

231

98.6666

232

98.8771

233

98.7144

234

98.9369

235

98.2668

236

98.614

237

99.4014

238

100.3612

239

100.6288

240

101.3011

241

101.6508

242

101.4938

243

101.6186

244

102.0135

245

101.3145

246

101.3738

247

101.3835

248

100.8116

249

100.4845

250

100.2736

251

100.6657

252

100.8632

253

100.4632

254

100.6778

255

101.6948

256

102.5031

257

103.0119

258

102.4669

259

102.5523

260

102.3169

261

101.2419

262

100.8809

263

100.7875

264

101.0889

265

100.2624

266

102.3431

267

103.7564

268

103.9994

269

104.3569

270

105.2798

271

105.6426

272

105.206

273

104.7786

274

104.4947

275

104.0357

276

104.3187

277

104.6903

278

105.4401

279

105.3153

280

105.2304

281

105.3106

282

105.1895

283

105.3204

284

105.3658

285

105.5113

286

105.6825

287

105.4127

288

104.5546

289

104.0449

290

103.0872

291

102.7235

292

102.3605

293

102.8212

294

102.1176

295

102.2195

296

101.4817

297

103.3663

298

105.3008

299

106.4435

300

107.5522

301

107.1914

302

106.6626

303

108.3733

304

108.5136

305

107.2287

306

107.8045

307

107.5091

308

108.1591

309

108.8289

310

109.1905

311

108.8161

312

108.27

313

107.2708

314

106.9807

315

107.2183

316

107.4929

317

107.8812

318

109.0516

319

108.454

320

108.705

321

108.4536

322

108.4076

323

108.8028

324

108.5099

325

109.441

326

110.1431

327

110.5897

328

111.2972

329

110.9772

330

111.4203

331

111.5097

332

111.4946

333

110.9765

334

109.9646

335

109.5871

336

108.3649

337

108.0577

338

106.883

339

106.8118

340

106.1126

341

106.0176

342

105.1901

343

105.8623

344

105.5999

345

105.477

346

104.7609

347

104.6222

348

104.0225

349

103.6191

350

102.8252

351

102.7484

352

102.8605

353

102.6596

354

102.6444

355

103.1589

356

102.8047

357

102.5463

358

101.1496

359

101.3849

360

101.6431

361

101.7916

362

101.8273

363

102.2419

364

101.5867

365

101.174

366

100.1863