Crypto assets

Bitcoin vs US Dollar (BTCUSD) Seasonality

Over 2017 to 2026 (10 years of data), BTCUSD has tended to move long between 05.10 and 07.11, closing higher in 77.8% of those years for an average +22.15% move and an annualized Sharpe of 3.00.

Years: 2017-2026
Category: Crypto assets
Windows: 8

Best window

05.10 - 07.11

Direction

Long

Win rate

77.8%

Avg return

+22.15%

Sample

9 yrs

Average seasonal curve

Average path across the year

2017-2026

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
05.10 → 07.11	Long	77.8%	+22.15%	3.00	9
05.10 → 06.11	Long	77.8%	+21.69%	3.02	9
06.10 → 07.11	Long	77.8%

Embed this chart

<iframe src="https://www.analytics-fx.com/embed/seasonality/btcusd" title="BTCUSD seasonality" width="480" height="240" style="border:0;border-radius:8px;overflow:hidden" loading="lazy"></iframe>

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Open in the seasonality screener →Browse all instruments How to read seasonality

BTCUSD average seasonal curve, 2017 to 2026
Index	Value
1	100
2	102.6177
3	102.0642
4	101.9726
5	102.1412
6	104.4458
7	104.0125
8	105.9113
9	104.9088
10	104.8233
11	104.133
12	103.2066
13	105.7006
14	107.9151
15	107.7653
16	107.8441
17	107.9131
18	107.3178
19	106.4583
20	107.4826
21	103.0672
22	102.0816
23	102.6295
24	102.99
25	103.4295
26	104.0207
27	102.8933
28	104.9455
29	107.4947
30	106.5819
31	105.7564
32	106.5627
33	105.9667
34	108.1265
35	108.9888
36	109.076
37	110.183
38	111.7888
39	116.1339
40	116.0764
41	115.0863
42	116.225
43	117.0787
44	116.4985
45	119.0489
46	122.0743
47	121.2279
48	121.4656
49	121.1407
50	122.9453
51	123.0486
52	121.7232
53	120.6318
54	117.0381
55	116.4921
56	115.0588
57	115.0177
58	115.2599
59	119.6353
60	123.0564
61	124.8381
62	121.3158
63	119.1302
64	122.3911
65	119.9682
66	120.4889
67	121.2133
68	121.6183
69	119.7385
70	122.029
71	125.2434
72	127.2399
73	129.6438
74	126.9897
75	128.202
76	130.1525
77	130.4421
78	132.9847
79	129.0267
80	131.2539
81	128.7468
82	130.1526
83	129.4593
84	130.4831
85	133.8422
86	134.9268
87	134.0199
88	136.0819
89	135.6768
90	135.1251
91	137.0731
92	135.18
93	132.7945
94	134.1878
95	134.8724
96	130.9211
97	130.6729
98	130.1965
99	133.8103
100	133.46
101	134.1612
102	134.5437
103	135.7245
104	133.6833
105	134.4862
106	132.8003
107	131.4145
108	130.0335
109	129.9275
110	129.8754
111	128.3139
112	128.9836
113	129.1412
114	128.48
115	128.6351
116	129.7739
117	131.4277
118	131.7613
119	129.9338
120	131.5517
121	130.3819
122	129.4691
123	129.5905
124	130.0644
125	131.0666
126	130.2417
127	129.6165
128	129.7923
129	125.7494
130	126.6298
131	123.649
132	119.8258
133	120.6809
134	122.0238
135	121.1968
136	121.4461
137	120.2465
138	119.3588
139	116.8164
140	118.514
141	118.815
142	119.6866
143	115.9503
144	117.9502
145	118.172
146	119.0041
147	117.8456
148	117.477
149	116.006
150	117.7812
151	118.854
152	116.5384
153	118.1029
154	118.2958
155	117.2034
156	115.0417
157	118.4685
158	116.1848
159	115.0477
160	118.5419
161	116.8293
162	116.392
163	112.3559
164	111.102
165	110.2714
166	110.6977
167	108.3704
168	108.1442
169	105.1147
170	106.5634
171	107.4263
172	106.0135
173	105.2724
174	108.7159
175	109.1369
176	106.615
177	106.9348
178	108.1639
179	107.4224
180	108.1254
181	107.4163
182	106.0969
183	106.9767
184	107.8576
185	107.9777
186	105.6598
187	105.9913
188	107.5695
189	106.0952
190	107.4096
191	108.0411
192	107.8781
193	106.1281
194	108.1377
195	108.3598
196	108.151
197	109.7342
198	109.5488
199	110.6422
200	110.8777
201	110.6686
202	112.5269
203	112.9137
204	113.417
205	112.6624
206	111.7784
207	113.1779
208	117.2066
209	118.2036
210	118.2605
211	118.8063
212	117.3719
213	115.7384
214	114.724
215	112.928
216	113.4123
217	113.5456
218	112.8373
219	115.4041
220	115.5222
221	118.5817
222	119.1551
223	118.9855
224	118.2659
225	120.8831
226	119.9876
227	118.5798
228	116.945
229	114.5908
230	113.9496
231	111.5009
232	113.8147
233	113.4102
234	115.131
235	115.0962
236	114.8143
237	114.8548
238	112.7285
239	113.0524
240	111.4546
241	112.5653
242	111.0618
243	110.0328
244	110.922
245	110.7466
246	111.8576
247	111.0521
248	111.7776
249	110.1886
250	107.9122
251	107.5298
252	110.0526
253	110.9127
254	111.194
255	112.7928
256	110.4946
257	112.6622
258	112.4039
259	112.2613
260	111.9787
261	112.7745
262	113.0579
263	110.544
264	108.3904
265	110.5141
266	110.9729
267	109.4603
268	108.769
269	109.1736
270	109.2915
271	110.2986
272	111.1177
273	112.0197
274	115.0042
275	113.5086
276	114.6539
277	116.3321
278	117.5446
279	119.6821
280	118.1481
281	118.2233
282	118.0704
283	115.1451
284	115.1344
285	116.2499
286	117.4661
287	116.6167
288	119.1933
289	120.0821
290	120.4055
291	120.3944
292	121.9872
293	123.7378
294	122.3493
295	121.1229
296	124.8369
297	124.9003
298	127.9246
299	127.4123
300	125.9073
301	127.3865
302	128.7863
303	128.9808
304	128.8624
305	128.5914
306	128.6049
307	127.4089
308	126.7384
309	127.0016
310	126.6666
311	130.0132
312	128.9703
313	126.352
314	128.8951
315	128.3622
316	129.9521
317	128.1946
318	127.7647
319	128.412
320	126.1426
321	125.9177
322	124.3947
323	125.3025
324	124.5394
325	122.2676
326	123.9925
327	125.7996
328	126.0166
329	126.4963
330	123.4618
331	123.6701
332	125.835
333	126.3383
334	127.3161
335	126.3416
336	128.3185
337	127.285
338	126.3221
339	127.4208
340	127.4914
341	127.943
342	129.0724
343	127.979
344	126.6778
345	126.2212
346	127.4455
347	127.0361
348	127.798
349	126.2431
350	125.8347
351	124.7073
352	125.5854
353	124.1298
354	125.0985
355	126.3406
356	126.093
357	126.0825
358	125.7274
359	126.7001
360	126.683
361	126.0673
362	123.3203
363	122.6002
364	122.8768
365	123.0081
366	126.9732

BTCUSD average seasonal curve, 2017 to 2026

Index

Value

100

102.6177

102.0642

101.9726

102.1412

104.4458

104.0125

105.9113

104.9088

104.8233

104.133

103.2066

105.7006

107.9151

107.7653

107.8441

107.9131

107.3178

106.4583

107.4826

103.0672

102.0816

102.6295

102.99

103.4295

104.0207

102.8933

104.9455

107.4947

106.5819

105.7564

106.5627

105.9667

108.1265

108.9888

109.076

110.183

111.7888

116.1339

116.0764

115.0863

116.225

117.0787

116.4985

119.0489

122.0743

121.2279

121.4656

121.1407

122.9453

123.0486

121.7232

120.6318

117.0381

116.4921

115.0588

115.0177

115.2599

119.6353

123.0564

124.8381

121.3158

119.1302

122.3911

119.9682

120.4889

121.2133

121.6183

119.7385

122.029

125.2434

127.2399

129.6438

126.9897

128.202

130.1525

130.4421

132.9847

129.0267

131.2539

128.7468

130.1526

129.4593

130.4831

133.8422

134.9268

134.0199

136.0819

135.6768

135.1251

137.0731

135.18

132.7945

134.1878

134.8724

130.9211

130.6729

130.1965

133.8103

100

133.46

101

134.1612

102

134.5437

103

135.7245

104

133.6833

105

134.4862

106

132.8003

107

131.4145

108

130.0335

109

129.9275

110

129.8754

111

128.3139

112

128.9836

113

129.1412

114

128.48

115

128.6351

116

129.7739

117

131.4277

118

131.7613

119

129.9338

120

131.5517

121

130.3819

122

129.4691

123

129.5905

124

130.0644

125

131.0666

126

130.2417

127

129.6165

128

129.7923

129

125.7494

130

126.6298

131

123.649

132

119.8258

133

120.6809

134

122.0238

135

121.1968

136

121.4461

137

120.2465

138

119.3588

139

116.8164

140

118.514

141

118.815

142

119.6866

143

115.9503

144

117.9502

145

118.172

146

119.0041

147

117.8456

148

117.477

149

116.006

150

117.7812

151

118.854

152

116.5384

153

118.1029

154

118.2958

155

117.2034

156

115.0417

157

118.4685

158

116.1848

159

115.0477

160

118.5419

161

116.8293

162

116.392

163

112.3559

164

111.102

165

110.2714

166

110.6977

167

108.3704

168

108.1442

169

105.1147

170

106.5634

171

107.4263

172

106.0135

173

105.2724

174

108.7159

175

109.1369

176

106.615

177

106.9348

178

108.1639

179

107.4224

180

108.1254

181

107.4163

182

106.0969

183

106.9767

184

107.8576

185

107.9777

186

105.6598

187

105.9913

188

107.5695

189

106.0952

190

107.4096

191

108.0411

192

107.8781

193

106.1281

194

108.1377

195

108.3598

196

108.151

197

109.7342

198

109.5488

199

110.6422

200

110.8777

201

110.6686

202

112.5269

203

112.9137

204

113.417

205

112.6624

206

111.7784

207

113.1779

208

117.2066

209

118.2036

210

118.2605

211

118.8063

212

117.3719

213

115.7384

214

114.724

215

112.928

216

113.4123

217

113.5456

218

112.8373

219

115.4041

220

115.5222

221

118.5817

222

119.1551

223

118.9855

224

118.2659

225

120.8831

226

119.9876

227

118.5798

228

116.945

229

114.5908

230

113.9496

231

111.5009

232

113.8147

233

113.4102

234

115.131

235

115.0962

236

114.8143

237

114.8548

238

112.7285

239

113.0524

240

111.4546

241

112.5653

242

111.0618

243

110.0328

244

110.922

245

110.7466

246

111.8576

247

111.0521

248

111.7776

249

110.1886

250

107.9122

251

107.5298

252

110.0526

253

110.9127

254

111.194

255

112.7928

256

110.4946

257

112.6622

258

112.4039

259

112.2613

260

111.9787

261

112.7745

262

113.0579

263

110.544

264

108.3904

265

110.5141

266

110.9729

267

109.4603

268

108.769

269

109.1736

270

109.2915

271

110.2986

272

111.1177

273

112.0197

274

115.0042

275

113.5086

276

114.6539

277

116.3321

278

117.5446

279

119.6821

280

118.1481

281

118.2233

282

118.0704

283

115.1451

284

115.1344

285

116.2499

286

117.4661

287

116.6167

288

119.1933

289

120.0821

290

120.4055

291

120.3944

292

121.9872

293

123.7378

294

122.3493

295

121.1229

296

124.8369

297

124.9003

298

127.9246

299

127.4123

300

125.9073

301

127.3865

302

128.7863

303

128.9808

304

128.8624

305

128.5914

306

128.6049

307

127.4089

308

126.7384

309

127.0016

310

126.6666

311

130.0132

312

128.9703

313

126.352

314

128.8951

315

128.3622

316

129.9521

317

128.1946

318

127.7647

319

128.412

320

126.1426

321

125.9177

322

124.3947

323

125.3025

324

124.5394

325

122.2676

326

123.9925

327

125.7996

328

126.0166

329

126.4963

330

123.4618

331

123.6701

332

125.835

333

126.3383

334

127.3161

335

126.3416

336

128.3185

337

127.285

338

126.3221

339

127.4208

340

127.4914

341

127.943

342

129.0724

343

127.979

344

126.6778

345

126.2212

346

127.4455

347

127.0361

348

127.798

349

126.2431

350

125.8347

351

124.7073

352

125.5854

353

124.1298

354

125.0985

355

126.3406

356

126.093

357

126.0825

358

125.7274

359

126.7001

360

126.683

361

126.0673

362

123.3203

363

122.6002

364

122.8768

365

123.0081

366

126.9732