Crypto assets

Bitcoin vs US Dollar (BTCUSD) Seasonality

Over 2017 to 2025 (9 years of data), BTCUSD has tended to move long between 15.09 and 04.10, closing higher in 88.9% of those years for an average +3.46% move and an annualized Sharpe of 1.32.

Years: 2017-2025
Category: Crypto assets
Windows: 8

Best window

15.09 - 04.10

Direction

Long

Win rate

88.9%

Avg return

+3.46%

Sample

9 yrs

Average seasonal curve

Average path across the year

2017-2025

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
15.09 → 04.10	Long	88.9%	+3.46%	1.32	9
16.09 → 05.10	Long	88.9%	+2.55%	1.20	9
16.09 → 04.10	Long	88.9%

Embed this chart

<iframe src="https://www.analytics-fx.com/embed/seasonality/btcusd" title="BTCUSD seasonality" width="480" height="240" style="border:0;border-radius:8px;overflow:hidden" loading="lazy"></iframe>

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Open in the seasonality screener →Browse all instruments How to read seasonality

BTCUSD average seasonal curve, 2017 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	102.5051
3	102.7866
4	103.1253
5	104.7292
6	107.3053
7	106.7512
8	106.6962
9	105.3235
10	104.7632
11	103.1699
12	103.313
13	104.6679
14	107.4705
15	106.885
16	104.8093
17	104.9074
18	104.4247
19	103.6542
20	103.3186
21	101.3544
22	100.1518
23	100.0479
24	100.9625
25	100.3709
26	101.0112
27	100.8154
28	103.0231
29	103.0302
30	101.6945
31	100.3647
32	99.3912
33	98.6606
34	99.1781
35	98.5284
36	95.7031
37	98.6347
38	99.0227
39	103.2247
40	103.9073
41	103.0179
42	102.898
43	104.3774
44	103.8677
45	106.6236
46	108.0986
47	107.7946
48	107.6181
49	109.0319
50	110.2316
51	110.6887
52	109.1243
53	107.8902
54	106.0179
55	104.6335
56	104.0262
57	104.0375
58	104.2328
59	106.0821
60	108.1417
61	109.6808
62	108.2824
63	107.9221
64	109.6642
65	107.6481
66	106.9122
67	106.013
68	105.1696
69	104.463
70	105.4028
71	106.9744
72	102.3878
73	103.5434
74	102.2112
75	103.8447
76	104.0869
77	104.0132
78	105.7429
79	106.1071
80	106.2364
81	105.1088
82	105.4055
83	106.3048
84	106.9794
85	107.507
86	107.4752
87	107.1245
88	105.9912
89	104.8476
90	105.9566
91	106.8602
92	108.7247
93	108.693
94	107.9637
95	109.0693
96	106.7831
97	108.6278
98	108.9971
99	110.4011
100	110.7312
101	109.9535
102	111.2929
103	112.4713
104	111.6918
105	112.6053
106	111.3603
107	111.7158
108	111.3046
109	111.418
110	111.8761
111	110.761
112	112.0034
113	113.1523
114	114.0664
115	112.424
116	113.644
117	114.0809
118	114.3625
119	113.8988
120	116.4824
121	115.867
122	116.0225
123	117.8441
124	118.1226
125	118.8266
126	118.565
127	117.9921
128	119.464
129	118.0873
130	118.0364
131	114.4284
132	113.3328
133	115.8016
134	117.7868
135	117.6997
136	116.1908
137	113.8459
138	113.9613
139	114.4683
140	115.7171
141	115.2512
142	113.5831
143	111.5895
144	113.1945
145	112.4785
146	113.892
147	112.8206
148	112.4938
149	112.7109
150	112.8203
151	114.2675
152	112.2035
153	113.5125
154	111.7529
155	110.2809
156	109.1493
157	110.8959
158	110.3203
159	109.7226
160	110.9032
161	109.0566
162	109.422
163	106.3157
164	105.684
165	106.4184
166	106.317
167	105.7834
168	105.928
169	104.0563
170	105.1682
171	106.0536
172	105.5656
173	104.0109
174	107.1725
175	107.3671
176	106.2607
177	107.2413
178	106.1929
179	105.979
180	106.7528
181	104.6246
182	104.7857
183	106.4508
184	107.9554
185	107.4246
186	106.0669
187	106.3212
188	108.0161
189	108.1522
190	109.3212
191	108.2707
192	107.5447
193	106.8978
194	107.9883
195	106.1575
196	107.1389
197	106.9292
198	108.0977
199	109.9717
200	110.1486
201	109.8883
202	110.9173
203	111.1918
204	111.5921
205	112.2506
206	111.5627
207	112.0135
208	114.9801
209	116.4869
210	116.3192
211	116.8877
212	116.0379
213	115.5722
214	115.4198
215	113.3346
216	114.4817
217	114.7915
218	114.4763
219	116.0879
220	115.0037
221	117.0738
222	116.8658
223	116.6486
224	115.7762
225	116.6527
226	115.2577
227	115.0378
228	114.3608
229	113.5046
230	113.4599
231	112.4732
232	112.9223
233	112.4748
234	112.803
235	113.5778
236	113.5834
237	113.4276
238	112.2456
239	112.7196
240	111.409
241	111.8724
242	111.1192
243	110.8672
244	111.4846
245	112.8741
246	113.189
247	111.4392
248	110.9866
249	109.153
250	107.9017
251	107.876
252	108.4784
253	108.9563
254	109.276
255	110.6049
256	109.5283
257	110.6777
258	110.9813
259	110.9038
260	110.3708
261	110.9235
262	111.307
263	110.127
264	109.1664
265	109.6455
266	109.5858
267	106.6568
268	106.4451
269	106.1091
270	106.6258
271	107.1554
272	107.4985
273	108.4528
274	109.9611
275	108.9441
276	109.2252
277	110.1411
278	110.9105
279	111.6885
280	111.2626
281	111.4314
282	112.2396
283	110.6676
284	109.9203
285	110.6524
286	111.3816
287	110.9086
288	112.3618
289	112.7008
290	112.7472
291	112.4987
292	113.4574
293	115.0872
294	114.5731
295	114.5396
296	115.7086
297	115.6506
298	119.2339
299	118.9055
300	119.5974
301	120.4885
302	120.8657
303	120.7704
304	120.8589
305	121.1117
306	121.1156
307	120.2816
308	120.8401
309	120.9215
310	122.1803
311	123.861
312	121.9056
313	120.9302
314	122.4146
315	121.689
316	122.9451
317	122.3025
318	120.3848
319	120.1739
320	118.5763
321	119.1567
322	118.8276
323	117.1819
324	115.6397
325	114.8426
326	114.4808
327	115.1922
328	114.4792
329	114.6355
330	112.191
331	111.9634
332	114.319
333	115.5528
334	115.3759
335	115.391
336	116.1471
337	115.0413
338	114.7573
339	114.4218
340	113.968
341	114.1663
342	114.6852
343	113.7573
344	112.6309
345	111.9539
346	112.7304
347	112.5113
348	112.6941
349	111.7361
350	111.3651
351	112.6468
352	115.7833
353	115.0106
354	117.3184
355	117.0054
356	117.0195
357	117.5964
358	117.3612
359	117.0761
360	117.7001
361	117.5434
362	117.0702
363	117.3688
364	117.1769
365	117.2713
366	119.3633

BTCUSD average seasonal curve, 2017 to 2025

Index

Value

100

102.5051

102.7866

103.1253

104.7292

107.3053

106.7512

106.6962

105.3235

104.7632

103.1699

103.313

104.6679

107.4705

106.885

104.8093

104.9074

104.4247

103.6542

103.3186

101.3544

100.1518

100.0479

100.9625

100.3709

101.0112

100.8154

103.0231

103.0302

101.6945

100.3647

99.3912

98.6606

99.1781

98.5284

95.7031

98.6347

99.0227

103.2247

103.9073

103.0179

102.898

104.3774

103.8677

106.6236

108.0986

107.7946

107.6181

109.0319

110.2316

110.6887

109.1243

107.8902

106.0179

104.6335

104.0262

104.0375

104.2328

106.0821

108.1417

109.6808

108.2824

107.9221

109.6642

107.6481

106.9122

106.013

105.1696

104.463

105.4028

106.9744

102.3878

103.5434

102.2112

103.8447

104.0869

104.0132

105.7429

106.1071

106.2364

105.1088

105.4055

106.3048

106.9794

107.507

107.4752

107.1245

105.9912

104.8476

105.9566

106.8602

108.7247

108.693

107.9637

109.0693

106.7831

108.6278

108.9971

110.4011

100

110.7312

101

109.9535

102

111.2929

103

112.4713

104

111.6918

105

112.6053

106

111.3603

107

111.7158

108

111.3046

109

111.418

110

111.8761

111

110.761

112

112.0034

113

113.1523

114

114.0664

115

112.424

116

113.644

117

114.0809

118

114.3625

119

113.8988

120

116.4824

121

115.867

122

116.0225

123

117.8441

124

118.1226

125

118.8266

126

118.565

127

117.9921

128

119.464

129

118.0873

130

118.0364

131

114.4284

132

113.3328

133

115.8016

134

117.7868

135

117.6997

136

116.1908

137

113.8459

138

113.9613

139

114.4683

140

115.7171

141

115.2512

142

113.5831

143

111.5895

144

113.1945

145

112.4785

146

113.892

147

112.8206

148

112.4938

149

112.7109

150

112.8203

151

114.2675

152

112.2035

153

113.5125

154

111.7529

155

110.2809

156

109.1493

157

110.8959

158

110.3203

159

109.7226

160

110.9032

161

109.0566

162

109.422

163

106.3157

164

105.684

165

106.4184

166

106.317

167

105.7834

168

105.928

169

104.0563

170

105.1682

171

106.0536

172

105.5656

173

104.0109

174

107.1725

175

107.3671

176

106.2607

177

107.2413

178

106.1929

179

105.979

180

106.7528

181

104.6246

182

104.7857

183

106.4508

184

107.9554

185

107.4246

186

106.0669

187

106.3212

188

108.0161

189

108.1522

190

109.3212

191

108.2707

192

107.5447

193

106.8978

194

107.9883

195

106.1575

196

107.1389

197

106.9292

198

108.0977

199

109.9717

200

110.1486

201

109.8883

202

110.9173

203

111.1918

204

111.5921

205

112.2506

206

111.5627

207

112.0135

208

114.9801

209

116.4869

210

116.3192

211

116.8877

212

116.0379

213

115.5722

214

115.4198

215

113.3346

216

114.4817

217

114.7915

218

114.4763

219

116.0879

220

115.0037

221

117.0738

222

116.8658

223

116.6486

224

115.7762

225

116.6527

226

115.2577

227

115.0378

228

114.3608

229

113.5046

230

113.4599

231

112.4732

232

112.9223

233

112.4748

234

112.803

235

113.5778

236

113.5834

237

113.4276

238

112.2456

239

112.7196

240

111.409

241

111.8724

242

111.1192

243

110.8672

244

111.4846

245

112.8741

246

113.189

247

111.4392

248

110.9866

249

109.153

250

107.9017

251

107.876

252

108.4784

253

108.9563

254

109.276

255

110.6049

256

109.5283

257

110.6777

258

110.9813

259

110.9038

260

110.3708

261

110.9235

262

111.307

263

110.127

264

109.1664

265

109.6455

266

109.5858

267

106.6568

268

106.4451

269

106.1091

270

106.6258

271

107.1554

272

107.4985

273

108.4528

274

109.9611

275

108.9441

276

109.2252

277

110.1411

278

110.9105

279

111.6885

280

111.2626

281

111.4314

282

112.2396

283

110.6676

284

109.9203

285

110.6524

286

111.3816

287

110.9086

288

112.3618

289

112.7008

290

112.7472

291

112.4987

292

113.4574

293

115.0872

294

114.5731

295

114.5396

296

115.7086

297

115.6506

298

119.2339

299

118.9055

300

119.5974

301

120.4885

302

120.8657

303

120.7704

304

120.8589

305

121.1117

306

121.1156

307

120.2816

308

120.8401

309

120.9215

310

122.1803

311

123.861

312

121.9056

313

120.9302

314

122.4146

315

121.689

316

122.9451

317

122.3025

318

120.3848

319

120.1739

320

118.5763

321

119.1567

322

118.8276

323

117.1819

324

115.6397

325

114.8426

326

114.4808

327

115.1922

328

114.4792

329

114.6355

330

112.191

331

111.9634

332

114.319

333

115.5528

334

115.3759

335

115.391

336

116.1471

337

115.0413

338

114.7573

339

114.4218

340

113.968

341

114.1663

342

114.6852

343

113.7573

344

112.6309

345

111.9539

346

112.7304

347

112.5113

348

112.6941

349

111.7361

350

111.3651

351

112.6468

352

115.7833

353

115.0106

354

117.3184

355

117.0054

356

117.0195

357

117.5964

358

117.3612

359

117.0761

360

117.7001

361

117.5434

362

117.0702

363

117.3688

364

117.1769

365

117.2713

366

119.3633