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Bitcoin vs. Euro (BTCEUR) Seasonality

Over 2023 to 2025 (3 years of data), BTCEUR has tended to move short between 14.08 and 06.09, closing higher in 100.0% of those years for an average +10.55% move and an annualized Sharpe of 38.91.

Average seasonal curve

BTCEUR average seasonal curve, 2023 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	101.5462
3	100.9156
4	101.7294
5	102.2761
6	102.6789
7	101.3081
8	102.292
9	101.3802
10	102.04
11	101.9976
12	100.4157
13	101.3665
14	101.516
15	102.5171
16	102.8304
17	103.4327
18	102.4268
19	101.6278
20	100.4764
21	101.5814
22	99.9842
23	100.0953
24	100.1028
25	99.447
26	100.339
27	100.4032
28	100.3312
29	100.3808
30	100.58
31	98.7292
32	98.0251
33	98.388
34	98.1186
35	96.4679
36	93.4675
37	95.7997
38	96.0553
39	96.7122
40	97.3471
41	97.4773
42	96.7353
43	97.5545
44	97.9679
45	99.1326
46	98.8181
47	98.6569
48	98.0144
49	98.0171
50	98.3504
51	98.9291
52	98.3719

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
14.08 → 06.09	Short	100.0%	+10.55%	38.91	3
14.08 → 05.09	Short	100.0%	+9.61%	34.26	3
14.08 → 09.09	Short	100.0%	+9.43%	11.24	3
13.08 → 06.09	Short	100.0%	+9.37%	22.02	3
12.08 → 06.09	Short	100.0%	+8.90%	18.72	3
15.08 → 06.09	Short	100.0%	+8.65%	15.48	3
14.08 → 04.09	Short	100.0%

Explore further

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