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Australian Dollar vs US Dollar (AUDUSD) Seasonality

Over 1993 to 2025 (33 years of data), AUDUSD has tended to move short between 13.07 and 05.09, closing higher in 66.7% of those years for an average +1.07% move and an annualized Sharpe of 0.66.

Average seasonal curve

AUDUSD average seasonal curve, 1993 to 2025
Index	Value
1	100
2	100.0753
3	100.0734
4	100.204
5	100.2151
6	100.3024
7	100.2196
8	100.2257
9	100.234
10	100.3597
11	100.4791
12	100.4675
13	100.5326
14	100.4144
15	100.2712
16	100.2298
17	100.2172
18	100.2759
19	100.2212
20	100.2156
21	100.2058
22	100.0806
23	100.1399
24	100.0075
25	99.969
26	100.0863
27	100.0032
28	99.9316
29	99.6519
30	99.6034
31	99.7347
32	99.9575
33	99.8147
34	99.9327
35	99.9704
36	99.912
37	99.8952
38	99.8297
39	99.7431
40	99.8683
41	99.8149
42	99.9197
43	99.9536
44	100.0113
45	100.14
46	100.1195
47	100.1208
48	100.1412
49	100.0898
50	100.313
51	100.219
52	100.0942

Strongest recurring windows

Window	Dir	Win rate	Avg return	Sharpe	Years
13.07 → 05.09	Short	66.7%	+1.07%	0.66	33
13.07 → 29.08	Short	66.7%	+1.04%	0.79	33
13.07 → 30.08	Short	66.7%	+1.04%	0.78	33
13.07 → 01.09	Short	66.7%	+0.98%	0.71	33
13.07 → 31.08	Short	66.7%	+0.97%	0.73	33
09.07 → 04.09	Short	66.7%	+0.92%	0.56	33
10.07 → 04.09	Short	66.7%

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