The Zeta field: a regime and risk map for index traders

The Zeta field is a regime and risk monitor for the three index instruments that drive most retail trading: SPY, QQQ, and DAX. It is not a signal page. It is a map. The point is to know what market you are in before you decide what to do.

What the field tracks

For each of the three index instruments, Zeta exposes six time series and a regime tag:

• Risk. A composite risk score, where higher values indicate elevated tail risk.
• Shield. The size of the protective buffer suggested by the current regime, used to gate exposure.
• Vortex. A measure of trend dislocation.
• Drift. A trend-strength term.
• Exposure. The recommended exposure for the current regime.
• Drawdown. The running drawdown of the underlying from peak.

Each timestamp is also tagged with a regime label. The six classes are:

• Bull. Constructive trend, low risk.
• Recovery. Coming out of a drawdown, conditions improving.
• Neutral. No edge in either direction.
• Volatile. Whippy two-way action, expanded ranges.
• Bear. Negative trend, suppressed risk appetite.
• Crisis. Top-percentile risk, draw-down events. Highlighted on the timeline as crisis zones.

Each regime carries its own color across every panel so the field reads as a single picture rather than six separate charts.

The terrain grid

The terrain grid is a 2D heatmap. The x-axis is price (or normalized price), the y-axis is realized volatility, and the color encodes the modeled risk score at every (price, vol) cell. The same grid is also rendered with exposure as the color so you can see, for each part of the field, both how risky a region is and how much exposure the model suggests you carry.

Practically: you look at where the current (price, vol) point sits on the grid. The neighborhood around that point tells you whether you are walking into a more or less risky regime if either dimension moves.

The protection grid

A second heatmap, the protection grid, replaces price on the x-axis with current drawdown. The shield-threshold line is drawn directly on the heatmap. Points above the line are regimes where the model is in protective mode (cut exposure, defend); below the line is permissive (carry full exposure).

Crisis events

Below the heatmaps, the Zeta page lists every detected crisis zone for the selected asset. A crisis is defined as a sustained period where buy-and-hold drawdown exceeded 10%. Each entry shows the start date, end date, and peak drawdown of the zone. The list reads like a historical record of the times when this regime model would have insisted you be defensive.

How to use it

The Zeta field is most useful as a pre-market check on the three indices. The current regime tag, the current risk score, and the position on the terrain grid combine into a one-glance answer to "should I be aggressive, neutral, or defensive today." That answer applies broadly: even if you are trading single names, the index regime sets the stage.

What this is not

Zeta is not an options analytics page. It does not visualize gamma, charm, or any option Greek. For options-positioning context, use the GEX page. Zeta and GEX are complementary tools that answer different questions.